The ongoing development of Bjelasica’s infrastructure includes modern hotels, new ski slopes and luxury accommodations aimed at attracting both local and international tourists. However, the ambitious plans face significant challenges due to climate change, which jeopardizes the stability of the winter season. Ski resorts Kolašin 1600 and Kolašin 1450 are located below 1,800 meters in elevation, placing them at high risk for reduced snowfall.
Unreliable winter precipitation and warmer temperatures raise serious concerns about the sustainability of these investments, prompting investors to explore alternative solutions. Tourism expert Petar Golubović highlights the critical need for artificial snowmaking systems and diversified offerings to ensure ski seasons endure amid decreasing natural snow.
Bjelasica’s transformation
Following the recent opening of the first Swissôtel Kolašin, plans are underway for ten additional hotels and 28 mountain villas to open over the next few years. The construction and development of ski resorts on Bjelasica are part of a long-term spatial plan adopted in 2010, aiming to transform the area into a premier tourist destination with eight interconnected ski centers and a total of 250 kilometers of ski slopes.
The plan’s objective is to enhance winter tourism while also developing year-round activities, positioning Bjelasica as a top tourist attraction in the Balkans. The pressing questions ahead include how Bjelasica and its investors will respond to these climate challenges and whether the ski resorts can maintain their appeal in light of declining snowfall.
Research findings and global trends
A recent study published in PLOS ONE examined the effects of climate change on snow cover in European and Australian ski resorts, forecasting a significant decline in days with natural snow by the end of the century. For instance, ski resorts in the Alps could lose up to 42% of their snow cover, while Australian resorts might experience a reduction of up to 78% in snowy days, posing serious threats to winter tourism in these areas.
Ski resorts at lower altitudes, such as Chamonix and Megève in France, as well as locations in Germany and the U.S. Rocky Mountains (e.g., Aspen), face similar challenges to Bjelasica due to shorter winter seasons and more frequent snowless winters. Destinations in Switzerland, like Davos and Zermatt, are also at risk, leading them to invest in snowmaking systems and activities that attract visitors outside the winter months, such as cycling trails and spas. Likewise, Italian resorts in the Dolomites increasingly depend on artificial snow and are adapting their services to extend summer tourism.
Kolašin 1450 and Kolašin 1600 recognize the urgency for artificial snow, yet the establishment of water reservoirs and additional snowmaking infrastructure is still in progress. High costs and the need for extra resources, like water and energy, further complicate these efforts.
Investment viability
Despite the climate challenges, many ski resorts worldwide continue to develop hotels and supporting facilities while adapting to manage risks associated with reduced snowfall and shorter ski seasons. Key adaptations include transitioning to year-round operations that feature activities like hiking, cycling, and spa services, making resorts attractive even without snow.
Golubović asserts that investing in artificial snow systems is vital to ensure the viability of ski resorts during periods of low natural snowfall. He points out the lack of high-category accommodations (4-5 stars) in northern Montenegro, viewing these investments as crucial for serious tourism development in the region.
These developments will not only provide adequate lodging for potential tourists but will also stimulate the local economy and create jobs, ideally benefiting local residents. However, he cautions that global warming has led some ski centers in the Alps to close after decades of operation due to insufficient snowfall at lower elevations.
The critical takeaway is that without snow and prepared ski slopes, winter tourists—who primarily engage in alpine skiing and snowboarding—cannot be attracted, impacting the success of winter tourism in Kolašin.
Expert insights on vulnerability
Dr. Samuel Morin, a researcher from the French National Center for Meteorological Research, studies the consequences of climate change on ski resorts. His research, which evaluated over 2,200 ski areas across Europe, reveals that lower altitude resorts, especially those below 1,800 meters, face significant risks due to expected declines in snow cover over the coming decades.
With an average temperature increase of 2°C, approximately 53% of European ski areas could be at high risk of inadequate snow, while a rise of 4°C could escalate that risk to 98%. The research team advocates for enhanced use of artificial snowmaking, though this approach raises ecological concerns, such as increased consumption of water and electricity, contributing to carbon emissions.
